myFOREIGNPOLICY.COM

Because diplomacy is no longer the estranged son of international relations or the weaker brother of conflict

HOME

ABOUT US

THE MISSION

BECOMING INVOLVED

CURRENT VACANCIES

MYFOREIGNPOLICY

POLICY FORUMS

DEBATING CHAMBERS

VOTING LOBBIES

THE BRIEFING ROOM

E-JOURNALS

INTERVIEWS

MYWORLD

UPCOMING EVENTS

CONFERENCES

JOBS IN POLITICS

 

 

 

LATEST RESEARCH

 

 

Accessing pacification policy in Iraq: Evidence from Iraqi financial markets                   Eric Chaney

At the end of January, 2006 the Iraqi government issued roughly $2.7 billion of debt in exchange for over $20 billion of Saddam-era commercial claims. This paper uses variation in the yield spread of this sovereign debt to evaluate pacification policy in Iraq. Structural change models are run in conjunction with conventional event study analysis. Results detail a mixed market reaction towards pacification policies implemented through August, 2006. While the market seems wary of coalition troop withdrawals, events denoted military and political breakthroughs by the United States seldom coincide with decreases in the yield spread. However, the market responds to news of negotiations with Iran positively. The analysis underscores the potential benefits of using market variation to inform policy in regions where data collection is difficult and policies are time sensitive.

 

Transport 2050